- 달러 대비 원화 가치가 6년 만의 최고치에 거래되며 상징적인 달러당 1000원선을 돌파할 기세지만 한국은행은 6월 정책 회의에서 기준금리를 동결할 것으로 예상됨
- 자국 통화 가치의 절상으로 경제에 부정적 영향이 우려되는 경우 중앙은행으로서는 금리를 인하할 압력에 처할 수 있지만 한국 당국자들의 최근 발언과 외환시장에서의 비교적 제한적인 개입 등을 볼 때 한국 당국은 최근 원화 절상을 어느 정도 수긍하는 인상
- 최근 로이터 설문조사에서 27명의 전문가 가운데 25명이 이르면 연내 한국은행이 금리 인상에 나설 것으로 전망
- 원화는 지난 1년 새 11.6% 절상했으며 6년만에 처음으로 1000원선 돌파를 앞두고 있음
- 과거에는 원화 절상이 단기 증권투자 자금 유입에 의한 것이었다면 최근에는 경상수지와 경제 전망 호전에 의한 것이라는 차이가 있음
- 청와대, 기획재정부, 한국은행 관계자들도 로이터와의 대화에서 당국이 원화 절상추세를 돌려세울 의도가 있는 것은 아니라고 밝힘
- 지난달 한국은행 이주열 총재는 원화 절상이 긍정적인 면과 부정적인 면이 함께 있다고 말했는데 이렇게 긍정적인 면을 비중있게 말한 것은 이례적임
- 한국 경제는 최근 수출 의존도가 지속적으로 높아지고 있으나 박근혜 대통령은 내수 강화를 통해 경제의 재균형화를 도모하겠다고 천명
- 이 밖에도 한국은 미국 재무부 및 국제통화기금으로부터 외환시장 개입을 자제하라는 요구를 받는 등 갈등을 빚고 있음
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| (연도별 경상수지 흑자액과 외환보유액 변화 추이) |
PREVIEW-Bank of Korea to stand pat on policy Thursday, unworried by won at 6-year high
Choonsik Yoo
SEOUL, June 11 (Reuters) - South Korea's central bank is likely to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, unworried by the won's rise to six-year highs as it nears the symbolically important 1,000-per-dollar mark.
Whereas central banks often come under pressure to cut rates when a strengthening currency threatens economic performance, comments by top South Korean officials and what traders say has been limited intervention in foreign exchange markets indicate a level of comfort among policymakers with its recent appreciation.
"What I've been noticing recently is that the government is not attempting to turn the won's direction but is only trying to slow the pace of increase," said Young Sun Kwon, economist at Nomura International in Hong Kong.
"I don't think the won will be a key factor (to the Bank of Korea) going forward as the won's rise has been led by improving fundamentals in external balance positions," he said.
All 30 analysts surveyed by Reuters forecast the Bank of Korea would hold its base rate steady at 2.50 percent for a 13th consecutive month on Thursday.
Twenty-five of 27 analysts who offered a clear view on the next rate change predicted a 25-basis-point increase in the 7-day repurchase agreement rate within the next three months at the earliest as economic growth fuels price pressures.
Annual inflation in May picked up to a 19-month high of 1.7 percent. The central bank has a target of keeping annual inflation at between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent.
The won has gained 11.6 percent against the dollar in the past year and ended domestic trade on Wednesday at 1,015.7 per dollar, close to breaching 1,000 for the first time in six years.
"The authorities accommodated market pressure for the won to appreciate in late March and early April. I expect they will behave similarly in the future," said Tim Condon, chief Asia economist at ING in Singapore.
HUGE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS
The won's current appreciation is being driven by large and consistent current account surpluses combined with improving economic growth prospects, rather than a rush of short-term portfolio investment into local financial markets, analysts said.
Last year, the portfolio investment account swung to a net outflow of $8.3 billion from an inflow of $6.7 billion in 2012, whereas the current account surplus shot up to 6.1 percent of annual gross domestic product from 4.2 percent in 2012.
Officials at the presidential office, finance ministry and central bank, declining to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter, have told Reuters that the government was not attempting to reverse a rising won that is driven by strong economic fundamentals.
Meanwhile, the central bank governor made it clear last month that the days have gone when authorities acted to keep the won cheap to help exporters at the expense of domestic sectors.
"(A stronger won) may have negative effects on the economy, but when you take domestic consumption into consideration, a stronger won has boosted spending power and it may bring about positive effects like raising weak domestic spending," Governor Lee Ju-yeol told a news conference on May 9.
It was unusual for a South Korean central bank governor to speak of the positive effects of a stronger won on the economy.
South Korea's economy, the fourth-largest in Asia, has been increasingly dependent for growth on exports of smartphones, cars and ships, but President Park Geun-hye has promised to reduce the dependence by strengthening domestic sectors.
Growing conflicts with the U.S. administration and the International Monetary Fund also leave South Korea with limited room in responding to the won's climb.
The U.S. Department of Treasury and the IMF separately said early this year South Korea appeared to have intervened in the local currency market mainly to resist the won's appreciation, adding the won as a result remained undervalued.
South Korea does not provide any official data on market intervention but has said its interventions were always aimed at smoothing out the market's volatility. Traders have said intervention in recent weeks was modest and limited.
(Editing by Tony Munroe & Kim Coghill)
SEOUL, June 11 (Reuters) - South Korea's central bank is likely to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, unworried by the won's rise to six-year highs as it nears the symbolically important 1,000-per-dollar mark.
Whereas central banks often come under pressure to cut rates when a strengthening currency threatens economic performance, comments by top South Korean officials and what traders say has been limited intervention in foreign exchange markets indicate a level of comfort among policymakers with its recent appreciation.
"What I've been noticing recently is that the government is not attempting to turn the won's direction but is only trying to slow the pace of increase," said Young Sun Kwon, economist at Nomura International in Hong Kong.
"I don't think the won will be a key factor (to the Bank of Korea) going forward as the won's rise has been led by improving fundamentals in external balance positions," he said.
All 30 analysts surveyed by Reuters forecast the Bank of Korea would hold its base rate steady at 2.50 percent for a 13th consecutive month on Thursday.
Twenty-five of 27 analysts who offered a clear view on the next rate change predicted a 25-basis-point increase in the 7-day repurchase agreement rate within the next three months at the earliest as economic growth fuels price pressures.
Annual inflation in May picked up to a 19-month high of 1.7 percent. The central bank has a target of keeping annual inflation at between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent.
The won has gained 11.6 percent against the dollar in the past year and ended domestic trade on Wednesday at 1,015.7 per dollar, close to breaching 1,000 for the first time in six years.
"The authorities accommodated market pressure for the won to appreciate in late March and early April. I expect they will behave similarly in the future," said Tim Condon, chief Asia economist at ING in Singapore.
HUGE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS
The won's current appreciation is being driven by large and consistent current account surpluses combined with improving economic growth prospects, rather than a rush of short-term portfolio investment into local financial markets, analysts said.
Last year, the portfolio investment account swung to a net outflow of $8.3 billion from an inflow of $6.7 billion in 2012, whereas the current account surplus shot up to 6.1 percent of annual gross domestic product from 4.2 percent in 2012.
Officials at the presidential office, finance ministry and central bank, declining to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter, have told Reuters that the government was not attempting to reverse a rising won that is driven by strong economic fundamentals.
Meanwhile, the central bank governor made it clear last month that the days have gone when authorities acted to keep the won cheap to help exporters at the expense of domestic sectors.
"(A stronger won) may have negative effects on the economy, but when you take domestic consumption into consideration, a stronger won has boosted spending power and it may bring about positive effects like raising weak domestic spending," Governor Lee Ju-yeol told a news conference on May 9.
It was unusual for a South Korean central bank governor to speak of the positive effects of a stronger won on the economy.
South Korea's economy, the fourth-largest in Asia, has been increasingly dependent for growth on exports of smartphones, cars and ships, but President Park Geun-hye has promised to reduce the dependence by strengthening domestic sectors.
Growing conflicts with the U.S. administration and the International Monetary Fund also leave South Korea with limited room in responding to the won's climb.
The U.S. Department of Treasury and the IMF separately said early this year South Korea appeared to have intervened in the local currency market mainly to resist the won's appreciation, adding the won as a result remained undervalued.
South Korea does not provide any official data on market intervention but has said its interventions were always aimed at smoothing out the market's volatility. Traders have said intervention in recent weeks was modest and limited.
(Editing by Tony Munroe & Kim Coghill)