다른 일로 신경을 못 쓴 사이 피치레이팅즈가 'AA-'인 한국 신용등급과 '안정적'인 등급 전망을 유지한다고 발표했다. 국가 신용등급은 엄밀히 말하면 그 나라 경제에 대한 외국인들의 평가와는 다르다.
사실, 한 나라의 '경제' 전체에 관한 평가라는 표현 자체도 성립하기 어렵다. 국가 신용등급이란 좁게는 그 나라가 돈을 빌리면서 채권자(주로 자국민이 아닌)들에게 약속한 상환 책임을 지킬 수 있는 역량이 되는지를 평가하는 것이다.
그렇게 보면 신용등급이 뭐 그리 대단한 것이냐고 할 수 있겠으나, 그 평가 과정에 경제 체질과 정책적 역량, 그리고 경제에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 비경제적인 요인들까지 포함되므로 채권자들을 대신해서 평가 기관들이 이런 요인들을 꼼꼼히 들여다보는 것이다.
이번 발표는 신용등급이나 등급 전망을 변경한 것이 아니어서 발표문에 특이한 내용이 들어있지는 않지만, 경제에 관심 있는 사람이라면 발표문 전문(맨 아래 첨부)을 꼼꼼히 읽어볼 필요가 있겠다. 특히, 피치의 발표문에서 눈여겨볼 부분은 "등급 혹은 등급 전망의 상향/하향 조정으로 이어질 수 있는 요인들"이다.
그런데, 아래 내용에도 나와 있듯이 신용등급이라는 것이 워낙 채무상환 능력을 측정하는 것이기에 정부부채 항목은 상당히 중요하다. 게다가 신용등급 하향 조정은 해외 투자자들의 한국 자산에 대한 전반적인 악화로 이어져 대대적인 자본 유출로 이어질 수 있다. 그런 의미에서 나는 현정부의 재정 건전화 정책 기조를 기본적으로 지지한다.
일부에서 일본이나 미국, 유럽 G7 국가들의 사례를 들며 재정의 무한대 지출 확대를 주장하는 것은 한국의 실정과는 어울리지 않는다고 생각한다.
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| (사진 출처: www.korea.net) |
◆ 하향 조정으로 이어질 요인들:
- 재정수지 적자의 증가나 우발 채무의 현실화 등으로 인해 한국의 GDP 대비 정부부채 비율이 같은 등급 국가들보다 (현격하게) 상승하는 경우
- 주택시장의 긴장이나 노동시장의 구조적 부실화 등으로 인한 가계부채 상환 능력이 훼손됨으로써 거시경제 성과 저하나 금융 부문의 어려움이 발생하는 경우
- 한반도 지정학적 리스크가 한국의 경제 구조나 안보 상황을 현격히 악화시킬 만한 정도로 높아지는 경우 등
◆ 상향 조정으로 이어질 요인들:
- 한국을 둘러싼 지정학적 리스크가 구조적 차원에서 같은 등급 국가들 수준으로 낮아지는 경우
- 정치와 경제 부문 사이의 연계를 줄이기 위한 개혁 등을 통해 국가 통치 기준이 개선되는 경우
- 중기적 시계에서 GDP 대비 정부부채 비율이 뚜렷하게 하향 안정화 추세를 굳힐 정도로 재정 건전화가 이루어질 때 등
◆ 피치의 발표문
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Sound Credit Fundamentals: Korea's rating balances robust external finances, resilient macroeconomic performance and a dynamic export sector against geopolitical risks related to North Korea, lagging governance indicators relative to 'AA' rated peers and structural challenges from an ageing population. Credit and policy buffers remain sufficient to manage near-term growth headwinds, but Korea has seen a relative weakening of its fiscal metrics compared with peers over the past five years.
GDP Growth Headwinds: We forecast GDP growth to slow to 1.0% in 2023 from 2.6% in 2022. Higher debt service costs will weigh on consumption in the near-term, but the easing inflation and recent fall in lending rates should be supportive going into 2024. Exports fell sharply in 1H23, but appear to have bottomed out in 3Q23. Korea's export recovery is likely to be gradual, as we expect growth to be subdued in both China and the US next year. Still, we expect positive export and investment momentum, led by the nascent upturn in the semiconductor cycle, to lift GDP growth to 2.1% in 2024.
Weak Fiscal Revenue Performance: We forecast a narrowing of the consolidated fiscal deficit (including social security) to 2.0% of GDP in 2023, from 3.0% in 2022, resulting from expenditure reductions. Still, we forecast the deficit to be above the 0.6% 2023 budget target, as revenue collection has dropped sharply by about 10.1% in the year to August due to weak corporate performance, particularly in the semiconductor sector, and declining property capital gains tax.
The government expects an annual revenue shortfall of KRW59.1 trillion (2.6% of GDP) in 2023 relative to its budget forecasts. It has opted to plug this gap by using various public funds, including KRW20 trillion from the FX stabilisation fund (which we treat as a financing item), rather than more conventional means of permitting additional deficit financing through a supplementary budget.
Stable 2024 Deficit, Spending Restrained: We forecast the consolidated deficit to be 1.9% in 2024 in line with the government's budget proposal, as still weak revenue performance will weigh on public finances. The still-wide deficit comes even as the government plans to keep expenditure growth well contained at just 2.8% relative to the 2023 budget. Restrained spending, in our view, reflects a desire by the government to keep fiscal deficits in check once revenue recovers beyond 2024.
Modest Medium-Term Deficits: We believe the administration is committed to prudent fiscal policy and deficit reduction in the medium term. We expect the consolidated deficit to fall to 0.9% of GDP in 2025. We believe further narrowing of the deficit is likely beyond 2025, consistent with the debt ratio rising marginally to 53.8% of GDP by 2028 from a Fitch-forecast 50.9% in 2023 (AA median: 48.5%), but this is a divergence from the slight downward trend forecast in the 'AA' median.
The fiscal path, however, may depend partly on the outcome of National Assembly (NA) elections in April 2024. Passage of a fiscal rule, which is still under discussion in the NA, could help anchor fiscal policy in the medium term.
Policy Rate Cuts in 2024: We do not see rate cuts until early 2024, as we believe the Bank of Korea (BOK) is keeping an eye to the reacceleration in household borrowing, and market expectations that the US Fed will keep policy interest rates higher for longer. Nevertheless, we believe the BOK is at the end of its hiking cycle as it has maintained the policy rate at 3.5% since January 2023. Inflation has eased considerably, though it was somewhat high at 3.7% in September, and we forecast it to fall further to 1.8% by end-2023 and 1.5% by end-2024.
Household Borrowing Increasing: Korean households have one of the highest levels of debt globally, even as it has declined to 101.7% of GDP in 2Q23 from the 105.2% peak in 2Q22. In recent months, household borrowing and home prices have begun to rise again, due to expectations that the rate hiking cycle has peaked and easing of macroprudential policies by the government to facilitate a soft landing in the housing market. This could put household debt to GDP back on an upward trend.
Financial Sector Risks Manageable: Tighter monetary policy has pushed up debt-servicing costs, which we expect to continue to weigh on consumption, but not lead to broader financial-sector risks. Banks are well-positioned to manage potential pressures. We believe banks' asset quality is not likely to deteriorate sharply due to their strong underwriting standards and macroprudential measures. Mortgage loans also appear well-collateralised, with the loan-to-value ratio at about 40%, insulating banks to a degree from the property downturn.
External Strengths: Korea's robust external finance position, which provides a buffer to global market volatility, is underpinned by its history of persistent current account surpluses that supports a large net external creditor position of 22% of GDP (AA median: 12%). We forecast a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in 2023, broadly stable from the 1.8% in 2022, despite small deficits in the early months of 2023. Foreign-exchange reserves have declined since 2022, but we forecast them to remain sufficient at 5.9 months of current external payments by end-2023.
Geopolitical Risks: Tensions with North Korea remain heightened. Diplomatic dialogue has been minimal in the past few years and prospects for restarting denuclearisation discussions appear limited. The North's stance appears firm as it continues missile tests even amid persistent domestic economic challenges, and its recent efforts to enhance its relationship with Russia could complicate diplomatic progress. South Korea could also face growing economic challenges from US-China geopolitical tensions, including in the semiconductor sector.
ESG - Governance: Korea has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5[+]' for both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. Theses scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Korea has a high WBGI ranking at 79.2, reflecting its long track record of stable and peaceful political transitions, well-established rights for participation in the political process, strong institutional capacity, and effective rule of law. However, Korea has higher geopolitical risk relative to peers, as a result of North Korea tensions.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
- Public Finances: Rising government debt/GDP towards levels where Korea compares even less favourably to peers, for example, as a result of increases in fiscal deficits or materialisation of contingent liabilities.
- Macroeconomic: Economic underperformance or financial-sector distress resulting from impaired household debt-servicing ability, for instance, from stress in the housing market or a structural deterioration in the labour market.
- Structural: A rise in geopolitical risks on the Korean peninsula sufficient to severely worsen Korea's economic metrics or security situation.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade
- Structural: A structural easing of geopolitical risk to levels more in line with rating peers.
- Structural: Improved governance standards, for example, through reforms to reduce ties between politics and business.
- Public Finances: Fiscal consolidation sufficient to put the government debt/GDP ratio on a firm downward trajectory over the medium term.
