오늘 채권금리 급등은 외국인들의 대대적인 선물 매도가 특징적이었다. 그런데 간밤 미국 채권을 시작으로 일본, 동남아 시장에서도 채권금리가 올랐다. 시장 변동성이 커진 것으로 봐야 할 지 아니면 전세계적으로 위험자산 랠리가 시작된 것으로 봐야 할지 지켜볼 필요가 있다.
By Vidya Ranganathan
SINGAPORE, May 29 (Reuters)- A spike in U.S. interest rates triggered by expectations the Federal Reserve will tighten policy soon spurred a massive selloff in Asian bonds on Wednesday and forced Indonesia's central bank to step in to support its bond market.
The selling was triggered by a drop in U.S. Treasuries during Asian trading that took U.S. 10-year yields to 13-month highs, extending the run-up in yields since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony last week.
That testimony raised the possibility of the Fed rolling back its extraordinary quantitative easing (QE) program sooner than markets had anticipated.
Foreigners who have been huge buyers of high-yielding Asian debt led the selling, traders said, putting pressure on bond markets in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea and Australia.
As Australian bonds dropped, 10-year cash yields jumped to two-month highs at 3.48 percent and the Aussie dollar hit a 19-month low.
"These are the places which have seen the most fund inflows into the bond markets during the search for yield," said Nizam Idris, strategist with the Macquarie Group based in Singapore.
"But when growth seems to be coming back and the Fed could taper or unwind QE, then these flows are reversed.
"And 10-year Treasury yields are now at levels where most of these trades are being repriced."
While the U.S. dollar gained in the past week as concerns mounted over how soon the Fed will withdraw its massive monetary stimulus, bond markets remained largely steady.
Expectations the Fed's policy tightening will be gradual and be accompanied by stronger growth had encouraged foreigners to stay invested.
The fears that yields will rise faster, thereby leading to cash outflows from emerging markets and into dollar assets, intensified after Tuesday's auction of U.S. 2-year notes met with lukewarm demand and drew a higher-than-expected yield. The Treasury department is set to auction 5-year notes on Wednesday. U.S. 10-year yields were quoted at 2.18 percent at 0900 GMT, and have risen 56 basis points since early May.
In Indonesia, the central bank was forced into defending the rupiah and rare bond-buying intervention after rupiah bonds dived.
Five-year Indonesian government bond yields hit a 2-month high of 5.29 percent, taking the total climb in yields over two weeks to 0.4 percentage points, before the central bank's bond buying pulled yields lower. Traders said the rupiah fell below 9,900 per dollar.
Bank Indonesia (BI) Deputy Governor Perry Warjiyo said the central bank had intervened "..because some short term foreign investors or traders are selling off their bonds."
"We are committed to be in the market to stabilize the exchange rate of the rupiah. Because of it, we intervene both in forex and bonds," Warjiyo said.
FOREIGNERS SELL
Foreigners hold large amounts of dollar and local-currency denominated bonds in Asia. Their largest holdings as a proportion of the total bonds issued are in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Data from Indonesia's debt office showed offshore investors held 305.33 trillion rupiah ($30.8 billion) of government bonds, or 34 percent of the total outstanding as of May 24.
Bank Indonesia’s holdings of rupiah government bonds increased from 1.9 trillion rupiah at end of January to 22.6 trillion rupiah on May 24.
In South Korea, foreigners' net selling of leading June 3-year bond futures hit a record 4.5 trillion won on Wednesday.
"This kind of foreign selling is unprecedented, so the repercussions in the coming days could be considerable," said a trader in Seoul.
Yield on the benchmark Korean 10-year government debt rose to its highest level in more than three months, while the won fell half a percent against the dollar.
The Philippine peso hit a 9-month low.
In Malaysia, 5-year yields hit an 8-month high of 3.3 percent. Yields on Thailand's 5-year government bonds were at a one-month high of 3 percent despite Bank of Thailand cutting policy rates on Wednesday to support the economy and deter hot money inflows.
Stock markets weakened, with Hong Kong's shares faring the worst.
Yields on dollar-denominated Indonesian and Philippine credits, which are most vulnerable to U.S. Fed policy because they are priced and quoted at a spread to U.S. Treasury yields, also rose on Wednesday.
The Philippine 2037 bond was quoted at 112 cents and Indonesia's 2043 bond at 93 cents per dollar of bond value, both down four to five cents in the past week. The Philippine peso hit a 9-month low.
"There is now the view that the U.S. recovery story is real and sustainable," said Macquarie's Idris.
Ten-year U.S. yields would have to climb above 3 percent to reach 'escape velocity' or a level that would imply a sustainable economic recovery and therefore higher yields, Idris said, adding he expected markets would only get a green light signal if U.S. jobs data next week was really strong. "I am riding this move but only cautiously," he said.
(Additional reporting by Cecile Lefort in Sydney, Vincent Se Young Lee in Seoul, Rieka Rahadiana and Adriana Nina Kusuma in Jakarta, Umesh Desai in Hong Kong; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)
